Adobe expects US shoppers to spend $275.1 billion online this holiday season, 6.7% more than in 2025. In the UK, shoppers plan to spend £165 on average over the Black Friday weekend, down from £181 in 2025. Below are the main Black Friday statistics for 2026 and 2025, each with its source and what it means for a small online store. If you need the dates first, here is what BFCM means, with the 2026 dates.
Black Friday 2026 Forecasts and the Data Behind Them
Four organizations have published the main forecasts for the 2026 season. Each one measures something different, so read every number with what it covers:
| Forecast by | What it covers | Period | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe | US online sales | 1 November to 31 December | $275.1 billion, up 6.7% |
| NRF | All US retail sales, in stores and online, without cars, gas, or restaurants | November and December | $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% |
| Deloitte | US e-commerce sales | November 2026 to January 2027 | $316.1 to $318.9 billion, up 7.5% to 8.4% |
| Salesforce | Holiday ecommerce traffic that comes from AI chat agents, worldwide | Holiday season | 20% of all traffic |
Sources: Adobe's 2026 holiday forecast, the National Retail Federation's 2026 holiday forecast, Deloitte's holiday forecast, and Salesforce's 2026 holiday predictions. Salesforce's 20% includes shopping assistants, automatic tools, and programs that check competitor prices.
US Online Sales by Day: 2025 Result and 2026 Forecast
Adobe also forecasts each big day of the sale. It bases the forecast on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, so these numbers describe US online sales only. The five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, called Cyber Week, carry 17.3% of the whole season.
| Day or period | 2025 result | 2026 forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | $6.4 billion | $6.9 billion | +8.5% |
| Black Friday | $11.8 billion | $12.9 billion | +9.2% |
| Cyber Monday | $14.25 billion | $15.1 billion | +6.2% |
| Cyber Week (5 days) | $44.2 billion | $47.5 billion | +7.4% |
| November and December | $257.8 billion | $275.1 billion | +6.7% |
The 2025 results come from Adobe's 2025 holiday results.
Black Friday or Cyber Monday: Which Day Sells More?
Cyber Monday sells more online in the US, but Black Friday grows faster. Adobe expects $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday and $12.9 billion on Black Friday. Black Friday grows faster partly because it has the biggest discounts for TVs, apparel, and appliances.
The best day for a deal depends on the product, according to Adobe's forecast:
- Thanksgiving: sporting goods.
- Black Friday: TVs, toys, apparel, appliances, and furniture.
- Cyber Monday: electronics and computers.
How Close Were the 2025 Forecasts?
Adobe's forecasts for 2025 were close to the results. The forecast is from Adobe's October 2025 release, and the result from its January 2026 report:
| What was forecast | Forecast, October 2025 | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US online sales, November and December | $253.4 billion | $257.8 billion | +1.7% |
| Black Friday, US online | $11.7 billion | $11.8 billion | +0.9% |
| Cyber Monday, US online | $14.2 billion | $14.25 billion | +0.4% |
| Shoppers over the Thanksgiving weekend (NRF) | 186.9 million | 202.9 million | +8.6% |
The gaps are our own calculation from these numbers. Adobe's sales forecasts landed within 2% of the results. Shopper numbers were harder to predict: NRF counted 8.6% more shoppers than it expected, according to NRF.
What the Forecasts Agree On
Three trends appear in both the 2025 results and the 2026 forecasts:
- Black Friday grows faster than Cyber Monday. Result in 2025: Black Friday +9.1%, Cyber Monday +7.1%. Forecast for 2026: +9.2% and +6.2%.
- Online grows faster than all retail. Result in 2025: US online sales +6.8%, all holiday retail +4.1%. Forecast for 2026 by Deloitte: e-commerce +7.5% to 8.4%, all retail +4.0% to 4.8%.
- Phones take a bigger share every year. Result in 2025: 56.4% of US online spending came from mobile devices. Forecast for 2026: 57.4%.
For your store
Cyber Week is five days in a row, from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday on 30 November. Have your offer, stock, and checkout ready before Thanksgiving. Then put your strongest offer on the day your product type gets its best deals: for apparel, Adobe expects that day to be Black Friday. Plan your sale emails for the same days with our Black Friday email templates.
Black Friday Statistics by Country
Black Friday is a sales event in many countries now. Over BFCM 2025, the top-selling countries for stores on Shopify were the US, the UK, Australia, Germany, and Canada, according to Shopify. Each country measures the event in its own way, so compare a country only with its own past numbers.
| Country | Latest number | Measured by | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 202.9 million shoppers, Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday 2025 | NRF | Result |
| United Kingdom | £165 planned spending per shopper, Black Friday weekend 2026 | Shopify survey | Plan |
| Germany | €5.8 billion for Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025, about 2% less than 2024 | HDE | Forecast |
| Australia | A$6.8 billion for the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend 2025, up 4% | ARA and Roy Morgan | Forecast |
| Canada | 53% call Black Friday the most important shopping moment (2025) | RCC and Leger | Survey |
United States
More Americans went shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend in 2025 than ever before. A record 202.9 million people went shopping from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, according to NRF. Online saw 134.9 million shoppers, up 9% from 2024. Shoppers who bought for the holidays spent $337.86 on average. The 2026 forecasts for US sales are in the section above.
United Kingdom
Black Friday is a major sales event in the UK too. UK shoppers spent over £6 billion in Cyber Week 2025, 3% more than in 2024, according to Salesforce. But in 2026, UK shoppers plan to spend a little less. These are the main numbers from two UK surveys, by Shopify and by YouGov.
UK numbers at a glance
- £165: planned spending per shopper over the Black Friday weekend, down from £181 in 2025.
- 53%: shoppers who felt a negative economic impact in the past year.
- 82%: UK businesses that expect higher sales this season.
- 23%: people in Britain who plan to shop during the big sales events.
- 47%: likely shoppers who find it hard to know if a discount is genuine.
Shopify asked 2,000 UK adults in July 2026, and 1,000 UK business owners and decision makers in August 2026. These are plans, so real spending can differ.
Germany
Germany's retail association HDE expected Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales to fall in 2025, for the first time since 2016. It forecast €5.8 billion, about 2% less than in 2024, as reported by Lebensmittel Praxis. Still, 48% of the people asked planned to look for deals on Black Friday. IFH Köln ran the survey for HDE with over 1,000 online shoppers in October 2025.
Australia
Australians were expected to spend a record A$6.8 billion over the Black Friday to Cyber Monday weekend in 2025, 4% more than in 2024. That is the forecast of the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan. They expected around 6 million Australians to take part, with planned spending of A$804 per person. Their survey asked 2,898 Australians in October 2025.
Canada
In Canada, 53% of shoppers call Black Friday the most important shopping moment, according to the Retail Council of Canada and Leger. Holiday gift budgets stayed at $975 per person in 2025. The survey asked more than 2,500 adults in August 2025.
For your store
UK shoppers plan to spend less, and many find it hard to trust a discount. Make your saving easy to check: show the original price, the sale price, and the date the offer ends. If you sell to other countries, check each country's sale dates, currency, and delivery times before Black Friday.
Black Friday 2025 Results Worldwide
Black Friday 2025 set a new global record. Salesforce counted $336.6 billion in sales from 25 November to 1 December 2025, up 7%. Black Friday alone brought $79 billion in global sales, up 6%. For Shopify sales in each year since 2021, see our chart of BFCM sales on Shopify since 2021.
Shopify BFCM 2025 Numbers
Stores on Shopify sold $14.6 billion over the BFCM weekend in 2025, up 27% from 2024, according to Shopify. More than 81 million customers bought from them. Sales were highest just after noon EST on Black Friday, at $5.1 million per minute. The average cart price was $114.70.
Shopify counts both online and in-person sales, and it notes that results are not directly comparable with earlier years.
For your store
The Shopify average includes every product type and country. Compare your sale with your own average order value (the average amount per order) from last November.
What Sold Best on Black Friday 2025
Beauty, clothing, and gifts sold best. Over BFCM 2025, the top categories on Shopify were cosmetics, clothing tops and pants, activewear, and fitness and nutrition, according to Shopify.
Other sources show the same kinds of products:
- US online, whole holiday season: electronics ($59.8 billion), apparel ($49.0 billion), and furniture ($31.1 billion) brought over half of all online spending, according to Adobe.
- Biggest jumps compared with October: video games (up 415%), hand tools (up 395%), home security (up 360%), and headphones and speakers (up 320%).
- Top-selling items: LEGO Icons sets, Nintendo Switch 2, Apple Watch Series 11, fragrance sets, luggage sets, air fryers, and cookware sets.
- US gifts over the Thanksgiving weekend: clothing and accessories (51%), toys (32%), and books and other media (28%), according to NRF.
- Australian wish lists: clothing and shoes (45%), toys (34%), books (33%), and interiors and décor (32%), from Afterpay data in the ARA release.
For your store
Sets were common among Adobe's top sellers: fragrance sets, luggage sets, and cookware sets. If you sell products that go together, a ready-made set gives gift shoppers an easy choice.
Mobile, AI and Social: Where Shoppers Come From
Phones bring most Black Friday orders. Adobe expects 63% of US online spending on Thanksgiving to come from mobile devices, and 57.4% over the whole season, according to its 2026 forecast. Worldwide, phones drove 70% of online orders in Cyber Week 2025, according to Salesforce.
AI shopping is growing fast from a small base. Adobe expects AI traffic to US retail sites to rise 130% this season, and 95% on Black Friday. Adobe counts this traffic as clicks on links in AI services. After the 2025 season, Adobe wrote that "the base of users remains modest" in its 2025 holiday results.
UK shoppers are open to AI help, but less to AI buying for them. In the Shopify survey, 64% of UK shoppers are likely to use AI for at least one shopping task. Only 28% trust AI to make a purchase for them. YouGov found that planned AI use among likely UK shoppers almost doubled, from 19% to 34%.
Social media also sends shoppers: it drove 15% of global traffic to retail sites in Cyber Week 2025.
For your store
Test your store on a phone first, from the product page to payment. If AI assistants matter for your product type, read how to get your store ready for AI shoppers.
Discounts and Order Value
Discounts in 2026 should be close to 2025 levels, according to Adobe's forecast. Adobe expects discounts of up to 30% off the listed price during Cyber Week. Electronics should peak at 30% (30.1% in 2025), and apparel at 23% (23.2% in 2025).
In 2025, prices rose faster than the number of orders. Across Cyber Week, the average selling price rose 6%, while order volume grew 2% worldwide and fell 1% in the UK, according to Salesforce.
UK shoppers also wait for the right price. In the Shopify survey, 28% put items in their cart and wait for the price to drop. These things bring them back to buy:
- A price drop or sale: 32%.
- A discount code or special offer: 29%.
- Free shipping, faster delivery, or easier returns: 28%.
For your store
With order numbers flat, the value of each order matters more. Free shipping, faster delivery, or easier returns win back almost as many shoppers as a discount code. An offer that adds value to the order, like a free gift above a minimum spend, gives another reason to buy. Find more in our Black Friday offer ideas.
What stops customers from buying?
Get a free Shopify store auditWhat These Numbers Mean for Your Store
Black Friday still brings buyers in 2026, but more visitors will not bring more orders by themselves. In the second quarter of 2026, global site traffic grew 18%, but orders grew only 1%, according to Salesforce. Salesforce also puts cart abandonment, carts left without an order, at 82%. So before you spend more on ads, find what stops your visitors from buying.
UK shoppers also like to check before they buy: 86% feel more in control after they research a purchase, according to the Shopify survey. Start with the three places the numbers above point to.
What to check first
- Your checkout on a phone. Phones drove 70% of online orders in Cyber Week 2025, according to Salesforce. Go from product page to payment on your own phone.
- Your prices and offer. 47% of likely UK shoppers find it hard to know if a discount is genuine, according to YouGov. Show the original price and the end date.
- Your cart. 28% of UK shoppers wait in the cart for a better price. Show the offer, shipping cost, and delivery time in the cart.
To test each page, follow our guide to prepare your Shopify store for Black Friday. For every task by week, use our Black Friday checklist.
How We Chose These Numbers
We used numbers from the organization that measured them, and we link each source where its numbers appear. For Germany, we link to a trade news report of the HDE forecast, because HDE's own page did not open for us. Each number is a forecast, a result, or a survey answer, and we say which. These Black Friday and BFCM statistics measure different things:
- Adobe measures online sales on US retail sites.
- Salesforce measures shopping across its own commerce platform, with over 1.5 billion shoppers worldwide, according to its Cyber Week report. Its Cyber Week 2025 ran from 25 November to 1 December. Adobe's Cyber Week is the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday.
- Shopify reports sales by stores on Shopify, online and in person.
- NRF and Deloitte forecast all US retail, with different months and store types.
- Retail associations and surveys in each country show plans and forecasts: Shopify, YouGov, HDE, ARA and Roy Morgan, and RCC and Leger.
So don't add these numbers together, and don't compare them directly.
Get the Free Kit
To plan your sale with these numbers, use our free BFCM 2026 kit. It has six guides, from a 55-task store checklist to 6 email templates, and you get them by email. It is free, with no card and nothing to install.
Get the free BFCM 2026 kit
A 55-task store checklist, 24 free gift ideas, a 15-step campaign workbook, 15 AI prompts, 6 email templates, and 9 popup games.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How Much Will UK Shoppers Spend on Black Friday 2026?
UK shoppers plan to spend £165 on average over the Black Friday weekend, down from £181 in 2025. This comes from a Shopify survey of 2,000 UK adults in July 2026, so real spending can differ.
Is Cyber Monday Bigger Than Black Friday?
In the US, yes. Adobe expects $15.1 billion online on Cyber Monday and $12.9 billion on Black Friday in 2026. Black Friday is growing faster: 9.2%, against 6.2% for Cyber Monday.
Do Prices Actually Drop on Cyber Monday?
Yes, for some products. Adobe expects the biggest discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday. For TVs, toys, apparel, appliances, and furniture, the best deals should come on Black Friday.
What Sold Best on Black Friday 2025?
On Shopify, the top categories over BFCM 2025 were cosmetics, clothing tops and pants, activewear, and fitness and nutrition. In US online sales, electronics and apparel were the two biggest categories of the season, according to Adobe.
How Much Did Shopify Stores Sell During BFCM 2025?
Stores on Shopify sold $14.6 billion over the BFCM weekend in 2025, up 27% from 2024. More than 81 million customers bought from them, according to Shopify.
